基于GM(1,1)模型的高速公路边坡变形预测

The Deformation Prediction of Highway Slope Based on the GM(1,1) Models

基于边坡变形监测信息具有一定的灰色特征,应用灰色系统理论的原理和方法,建立了边坡变形预测等步长与非等步长GM(1,1)预测模型。采用GM(1,1)模型对衡桂高速公路某典型边坡段测斜管监测变形监测数据进行预测,预测结果与实测结果较为一致,表明了本文建立的灰色预测模型具有较好的可行性和适用性。

The slope deformation monitoring information have gray features, apply the principles and methods of gray system theory, set up slope deformation prediction step and non step GM （ 1,1 ） pre- diction model, use the GM （ 1,1 ） model to predict the deformation monitoring data of Heng Gui a typical highway slope segment inclinometer pipe monitoring. The predicted results are almost same with the ex- perimental results, indicating that the gray prediction model established in this paper with a good feasibil- ity and applicability.