宏观税负与财政民生支出增长——基于省际动态面板数据模型的经验分析

Macro Tax Burden and Financial Expenditure of People′s Livelihood——Based on the Experience Analysis of Inter-provincial Dynamic Panel Data Model

基于中国1998～2009年的省际面板数据,通过构建动态面板模型,运用系统GMM实证检验宏观税负与财政民生支出的数量关系。结果显示:宏观税负上升带动了财政民生支出绝对额的小幅增长,但对财政民生支出份额的影响在统计上并不显著,这表明中国的宏观税负与财政民生支出的协调性不容乐观,财政民生支出强度不足不应主要归因于政府财力规模不足。因此,囿于宏观税负高低之争并无实质意义,关键在于实现宏观税负与财政民生支出的协调和匹配,确保财政收入更好地"取之于民,用之于民"。

Based on the inter-provincial panel data from 1998 to 2009 in China, system GMM is advanced to analyze the quantitative relationship between macro tax burden and financial expenditure of people＇s livelihood by building the inter-provincial dynamic panel data model. The result reveals that the rising of macro tax burden can contribute to the slight increase of financial expenditure of people＇s livelihood in absolute terms. But the effect of macro tax burden on the expenditure share is not statistically significant, which indicates the coordination be- tween macro tax burden and financial expenditure of people＇ livelihood is hardly optimistic. However, the inadequate financial expenditure should not be mainly attributed to the government financial scale. Therefore, it is of no real significance to discuss the level of macro tax burden. It is essential to coordinate macro tax burden and financial expenditure of people＇s livelihood and ensure that the financial revenue is take from the people and is used in the interest of the people.