兰州城市人口空间结构演变格局及调控路径

Population spatial structure evolution pattern and regulating pathway in Lanzhou City

以街道和乡镇层面的人口统计数据为基础,综合应用ArcGIS和GS+Version7等软件对兰州市人口空间演变进行定量分析。结果表明:自1982年至2009年,兰州市人口呈逐年"向心聚集"态势,但不同阶段、不同街区人口空间增长存在显著差异;街道和乡镇人口密度差距逐年增大,高密度街区个数增多、范围扩大;距离人口高密度中心越远,人口密度的正相关性逐渐削弱,负相关性则逐渐增强,空间自相关范围不断增大;人口空间分布整体呈"东密西疏"格局,并呈现"双中心"空间结构。人口的极不均衡分布,带来了环境污染、交通拥挤、住宅紧张、就业困难等一系列问题。通过构建多中心城市结构、调整产业空间布局、平衡配置基础设施和引导人口有序流动等方面进行综合调控,不断优化人口空间分布,保障城市的可持续发展。

This paper uses the ArcGIS and GS＋Version7 software to explore the spatial evolution characteristics of urban population in Lanzhou based on the population census data at the block level. The results showed that from 1982 to 2009, the population increased year-on-year, and that the differences were significant between blocks in various phases. The population density of each block is quite different as well. The population density gap of streets and towns had been increasing year by year, the number of high population density blocks was increasing and the area was expanding. With the increase of space distance, positive correlation of population density diminished, negative correlation was increasing and spatial autocorrelation range was increasing. The overall trend of population distribution shows a pattern of ＂densely populated district in the east while sparsely in the west＂ and a space structure of ＂double columnar peak body＂. The population extremely uneven distribution has caused problems such as environmental pollution, traffic congestion, house shortage and the unemployment rate rise. Therefore some concrete measures should be taken to establish multicenter urban layout structure, adjust the industrial spatial arrangement, speed up infrastructure construction and relocate the urban-rural population, so as to guarantee the sustainable development of the city.