我国海外投资对劳务输出的促进效应——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

Promotion Effect of China's Overseas Investment on Labor Export——An Empirical Research Based on Multinational Panel Data

海外投资和劳务输出都是我国对外经济劳务合作的重要发展战略,并且在加入世贸组织后均取得了大幅度的发展,因此探明两者间的内在联系对政策推行有较大的借鉴意义。本文通过理论机理分析和跨国面板数据实证研究,表明在总体上我国的海外投资能促进对外劳务输出和劳务合作,但对不同收入水平国家海外投资的劳务输出效应存在较大差异,即对发达国家和最不发达国家的海外投资能促进劳务输出,对其他发展中国家的海外投资并不影响劳务输出。考虑到劳务输出数据的非负整数性质,本文使用计数模型进一步进行实证研究,泊松回归和负二项回归结果均再次验证对发达国家和最不发达国家的海外投资能促进我国的劳务输出。

Overseas investment and labor export are important development strategies of China＇s foreign cooperation of economy and labor. Both of them achieve substantial developments after joining the WTO. Therefore, proving the intrinsic link of them is important for policy implementation. In this paper, the authors use theory mechanism analysis and multinational panel data empirical research. Results show that China＇s overseas investment can promote labor export and cooperation in general. But there exist large differences of the labor export effect of overseas investment to countries with different income level, that is, overseas investment to developed countries and least developed countries can promote labor export, while overseas investment to other developing countries does not affect the labor export. Taking into account the nonnegative integers nature of labor export data, the authors use count model for further empirical research in this paper. The results of both Poisson regression and negative binomial regression verify that overseas investment to developed countries and least developed countries can promote China＇s labor export.