节能减排约束下的中国区域全要素生产率演变趋势与增长动力——基于Malmqulist-Luenberger指数法

Evolution Trend of Total Factor Productivity in Regional of China under Energy-Saving and Emission-abating and Dynamic Analysis of Regional Economic Growth——Based on the Malmqulist-Luenberger Index Method

本文将能源和非期望产出二氧化碳纳入生产率分析框架中,基于序列DEA的方向性距离函数及Malmqulist-Luenberger指数测度了1999～2010年我国30个省、市、自治区及东、中、西、东北四大区域的全要素生产率的动态变化及其分解变量。实证结果表明,绿色生产率大于传统生产率,绿色生产率呈现W型波动趋势,主要的转折点出现在2005年与2009年;从区域差异来看,绿色生产率东部区域最高,其次为东北部、中部,西部最低;考虑碳排放约束后我国的产业结构得到了优化调整,呈现出规模效率的提升;从经济增长的分解效应来看,全国的经济增长驱动力量主要来自投入要素的增长效应,全要素生产率的平均贡献比例仅为5%。其中,东部区域的全要素生产率的增长效应对经济产出的贡献比例最高,东部区域正处在由"外延型"向"内涵型"的绿色经济增长模式过渡时期,而东北、中、西部区域经济增长模式仍以"粗放型"为主。

In this paper, we used input and output panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 1999 to 2010, based on the sequence DEA-Malmquist-Luenberger （ML） productivity index, and measured total factor en- ergy efficiency by considering the carbon emission constraints and its decomposition. The main conclusions are as follows： Green productivity growth index is bigger than the traditional productivity index, green productivity showed W-type fluctuations in trends, major turning point appeared in 2005 and 2009. The technological progress index is greater than 1 in the whole period, and changes in technical efficiency index varying degrees of degradation, mainly because the pure technical efficiency has not been able to be improved in this period. From the regional differ- ences, the eastern area of the green productivity was highest, followed by the northeast, Central, western low- est. Regional economic development, energy utilization and environmental protection in eastern area is more coordi- nated, the strategy of the western expansion promote the rapid development of the economy in the western area, but still serious environmental pollution problems in western area due to the characteristics of the industrial structure. Considering the carbon emission constraints ,Industrial structure has been optimized adjustment, showing the scale of efficiency improvements. From a regional perspective of the innovator, from 1999 to 2010, nine provinces at least once to promote optimal production frontier to move out. The ：Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and Hainan. In the other times）, Inner Mongolia （two times） promote the relocation innovator areas maily concentrate in the four provinces three regions, Liaoning （two times）, Shanxi （three of the optimal production frontier. From the decomposi- tion effects of economic growth, the driving force of economic growth in China come from the elements of growth effects, the average contribution of total factor productivity is just 5%. This means that China＇s current economic growth is still in three input factors growing for the support extension mode of economic growth mainly. The growth rate of total factor productivity in the eastern is the highest and contribute the highest proportion of economic output, it is much larger than the national average. The eastern part of the total factor productivity growth effect, the eastern region＇s economic growth mode is the green economic growth model of ＂epitaxial type＂ to ＂content＂. Northeast, central and western regional economic growth model is still the rugged type. As rapidly developing countries, energy consumption of China will continue to grow in the longer historical period. In order to achieve sustainable economic development, first of all, in view of increasing the marginal cost of approaching the efficiency frontier and regional efficiency improvement space narrowing, total factor productivity will be relying on technological progress to promote renewable energy,new energy ,＂ carbon capture＂ and carbon technology innovation and promotion. Second, Optimi- zating the Central and western regional industrial structure. The central and western regions should promote inter- regional energy use and technological exchanges and cooperation, and gradually narrow the pure technical efficiency differences between regions, and to promote the continuous relocation of our optimal production frontier and improve in the western part of total factor productivity. Third, accelerating the transformation of economic growth. Though the regional has taken to achieve energy efficiency goals in the ＂Eleventh Five-Year＂ period, Economic growth is still epitaxial extensive way mainly, we should fully tap the energy saving potential of high-energy-intensive indus- trial sectors and accelerate the transition to the connotation-growth mode.