房价上涨对居民生育行为的影响研究

The Effect of Housing Price on the Resident Birth Behavior

近年来,中国生育率的持续下降已成为学术界关注的焦点。造成这一现象的原因有很多,仅从节育技术和妇女受教育等角度进行解释明显缺乏说服力。利用中国大陆31个省区市1999-2010年的面板数据,运用动态面板GMM估计方法进行实证检验。结果表明房价对出生率具有显著的负向影响,房价的过快上涨对居民生育行为具有明显的抑制作用。进一步的研究显示,房价对居民生育行为的影响程度大于其他影响因素,表明房价在生育率下降过程中扮演了重要角色。

In recent years, the China＇s fertility rate decline has become the focus of the academic circles. There are a lot of reasons causing this phenomenon. It obviously lacks convincing explanation only from the angle of birth control tech- nology and women education etc. This paper .uses the panel data of China 35 large and medium-sized cities from 1999 to 2010 and the estimated method of dynamic panel GMM to study the effect of housing prices going up on the residents＇ birth behavior. The empirical results show that the housing price has a significant negative affection on the birth rate. It in- dicates that it generates the inhibition on the residents＇ birth behavior when the housing price rises rapidly. By further studying to reveal, the housing price has a greater influence than the other factors. Which indicates that housing price plays an important role in the process of the fertility rate＇s decline.