强化环境管制政策对中国经济的影响——基于CGE模型的评估

The Impact of Intensified Environmental Regulations Policies on China’s Economic Growth——An Assessment Based on CGE Model

本文构建了一个纳入环境管制成本的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,利用该模型评估了提升环境管制强度对中国经济的影响。结果显示,如果提升环境管制强度,使工业废弃物排放完全达到现行法律标准,将会使经济增长率下降约1个百分点,使制造业部门就业量下降约1.8%,并使出口量减少约1.7%。进一步的研究表明,虽然提升环境管制强度对各地区均会产生一定影响,但对不同地区的影响程度甚至方向均存在较为显著差异。从短期来看,无论以绝对量还是相对量衡量,提升环境管制强度对东部地区的影响更大;从长期来看,虽然以绝对量衡量,东部地区所受的影响较大,但以相对量衡量,中西部地区所受的影响则更大。本文认为,在当前实施强化环境管制政策的过程中,需要对政策可能造成的区域性及结构性影响有充分的认识;不同区域提升环境管制强度的重点和难点有所不同,中国强化环境管制应分区域逐步推进;提升环境管制强度应选择重点行业进行推进,应率先强化环境管制清洁度低并且政策关联效应小的行业。提升环境管制强度在政策时机上应在经济高涨时期进行推进。

In this paper, the authors have constructed a CGE （computable general equilibrium） model with integrated cost of environmental regulation to assess the impact of enhancing intensity of environmental regulation on Chinese economy. Study shows that if the intensity of environmental regulation was raised to make industrial waste discharge completely meet the current legal standards, it will lead to one percentage point drop in economic growth rate, 1.8 percentage points drop in employment of manufacturing sector and 1.7 percentage points drop in export. Further study shows that impact on different regions vary significantly. In the short term, either measured by absolute or relative amount, enhancing the intensity of environmental regulation will have greater impact on the eastern region. However, in the long run, central and western regions will suffer greater impact in relative amount. This paper argues that during the implementation of the policy, a complete understanding of regional or structural impact should be assessed. Since different regions will have diverse focus and difficulties when enhancing the regulation, regional focus of China＇s environmental regulation should be gradually push forward in key industries and start from west to east. Industries with lower level of cleanness and less policy relevance should be the priority. Enhancing the intensity of environmental regulation should be promoted in times of fast economic growth.