电力行业多污染物协同控制的环境效益模拟

Simulation of Environmental Effects of Multi-Pollutants from the Electric Power Industry

为定量分析电力行业多污染物协同控制与区域复合型大气污染之间的定量关系,评估不同控制情景下的环境质量效益,应用CMAQ空气质量模型分别对2008年基准排放情景、2015年和2020年目标控制情景的硫、氮沉降及PM2.5污染状况进行模拟.结果表明:2015年和2020年我国陆地硫沉降总量将由2008年的678.87×104t分别降至602.02×104和578.26×104t,降幅分别为11.32%和14.82%,平均每减排1 t SO2可减少0.2～0.3 t硫沉降;2015年和2020年的陆地氮沉降总量将由2008年的1 064.67×104t分别降至1 042.02×104和1 037.06×104t,仅分别降低了2.13%和2.59%,但重度氮沉降区域明显缩小,2015年和2020年氮沉降强度大于5 g/m2的区域将比2008年分别降低17.12%和22.01%;2015年和2020年ρ(PM2.5)年均值超过GB3095─2012《环境空气质量标准》二级标准(35μg/m3)的国土面积分别仍将高达289.14×104和286.68×104km2,与2008年(298.99×104km2)相比,降幅分别为3.29%和4.12%,但重污染区域显著减少,并且ρ(PM2.5)年均值超过70μg/m3的区域将比2008年减少9.31%和12.41%.

In order to quantitatively analyze the relationship between multi-pollutant control in the electric power industry and regional complex air pollution, and to assess environmental quality under different control scenarios, sulfur deposition, nitrogen deposition and PM2s pollution in 2008 （ baseline year） , 2015 and 2020, was simulated using the CMAQ model. The results show that total sulfur deposition, which was 678.87×10^4 tons in 2008, will be reduced to 602.02×10^4 and 578.26×10^4 tons in 2015 and 2020, representing declines of 11.32% and 14.82% respectively. 0. 2-0.3 tons of reduction in sulfur deposition could be achieved with every ton reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions. The total nitrogen deposition （including Taiwan）, which was 1064.67×10^4 tons in 2008, will be reduced to 1042.02×10^4 and 1037.06×10^4 tons in 2015 and 2020 respectively. The reduction rates （2.13% and 2.59% , respectively） will be much lower than those of sulfur deposition. However, the area where nitrogen deposition exceeds 5 g/m2 will be shrunk by 17. 12% and 22.01% in 2015 and 2020, respectively. The area where PM25 mass concentration exceeds the national ambient air quality standard （35 μg/m3） will be 2. 8914 million km2 in 2015 and 2. 8668 million km2 in 2020, representing reductions of 3.29% and 4. 12% , as compared with 2. 9899 million km2 in 2008. The area where PM2s mass concentrations exceed 70 μg/m3 will be reduced by 9.31% and 12.41% compared with 2008.