汇率影响、货币供给与通货膨胀

Exchange Rate Effect, Money Supply and Inflation

本文从人民银行近期政策与通货膨胀的现实意义出发,回顾了理论界有关通货膨胀主要成因的观点,并指出输入型通胀、需求拉动型通胀和成本推动型通胀是国内学者普遍认为当下通货膨胀压力的主要成因。根据经典理论分析,我国当下的通货膨胀压力是人民币汇率制度导致我国基础货币被动增发以及扩张性货币政策指导下超量货币供给所带来的流动性过剩问题。

Based on the recent policies of the People ＇ s Bank and the realistic significance of inflation, this paper reviews the reasons explained by the professionals in the theoretical circle, indicating that China＇ s scholars generally believe that the main reasons for current inflation pressure include imported inflation, demand- pull inflation and cost-push inflation. With classical theoretical analysis, this paper points out that the pressure of the current inflation is a result of following two factors： the passive issuance of base money caused by the exchange rate system of RMB and the excess liquidity resulted from over-issuance of currency following the expansionary monetary policy. Finally, the paper provides some corresponding policy recommendations in its concluding remarks.