经济增长贡献因素的初步测算:一个分区域和分年段的研究

Preliminary Study on the Contributive Factors of Economic Growth–A Sectional and Annual Analysis

基于扩展的索洛模型,采用岭回归方法分年段研究测算近30年和20年来中国区域经济增长的贡献因素和变化趋势。结果显示,资本在经济增长中的作用举足轻重,科技成为经济增长的主导因素,劳动力对经济增长的贡献率较低,市场化和对外开放效应逐渐弱化。建议科学设计并有效执行投资、科技、人口和改革开放等方面的政策,促进经济平稳较快增长。

On the basis of relevant research models and methodologies, a calculative study has been conducted on the contributory factors and development trends of Chinese regional economic growth for the past three decades. The study indicates that the role of capital is significant, and scientific and technological development is dominant in the economic progress. Labor force presents less contribution while the effects of marketing and mechanisms of opening-up have been weakened. Therefore, it is suggested that efforts should be made to strongly implement the national policy and rational design of economic development, especially in the respects of investment, technology, labor force allocation, reform and opening-up, to ensure smooth and stable development of economy.