中国经济长期增长路径、效率与潜在增长水平

China's Long-Term Growth Path, Efficiency, and Potential Growth Rate

本文研究中国将要经历的增长阶段转换问题,主要结论是:(1)高投资和出口驱动的经济增长阶段Ⅰ,已逐步失去经由干预提升效率的动力,以结构调整促进效率提高的增长阶段行将结束,城市化和服务业的发展将开启经济稳速增长阶段Ⅱ,效率提高促进结构优化是本阶段的主要特征;(2)促使增长阶段Ⅰ向增长阶段Ⅱ转型的三大主导因素是:人口结构变化和劳动力拐点的出现,长期增长函数要素弹性参数逆转以及经济结构服务化趋势的逐步形成;(3)东部发达省市如北京、上海等已经进入经济减速通道,2016年后,随着全国城市化率的不断提高、结构服务化加快、人口红利的下降,如果劳动生产率不能持续提高,中国经济减速势成必然。

This study probes into the switch of growth stages China is going to experience, with main conclusions as follows： （ 1 ） growth stage I, driven by high investment and industrialization, is gradually losing its power of efficiency-enhancing through intervening, and the stage of structural adjustment to improve efficiency is now coming to an end, and meanwhile, growth stage II is being initiated by the development of urbanization and service industry, of which the main characteristics is structural improvement through efficiency-enhancing; （2） three main factors brings about the switch from growth stage I to stage II, viz., the arrival of turning points of demographic structure and labor supply, the sharp changes in output elasticities of production factors along the long-run growth path, and the emerge of the dominance of service industry in the economic structure; （3） rich eastern cities and provinces like Beijing and Shanghai has entered the slowdown growth path, and it is rather certain that in 2016 China＇s economy will slow down during the speeding urbanization process.