中国产出缺口价格效应的转变趋势--基于劳动力条件变化的视角

The Transition of the Price Effect of China's Output Gap——Based on the Change of Labor Supply Condition

本文首先从理论角度证明,当劳动力无限供给格局让位于有限供给后,产出缺口的价格效应将出现两种转变:首先,从原来只能引起资本品价格变化转向能同时引起工资的变化;其次,对产品价格的影响力必然强化。基于1992—2012年宏观季度数据,利用HP滤波、BK滤波、CF滤波以及卡尔曼滤波等四种方法计算了中国的产出缺口,并借鉴Gordon模型进行了检验,结果发现自2005年以来中国产出缺口对PPI指数的影响确实出现了强化趋势,对工资指数的影响也在从无到有地凸显出来。这可能预示着中国潜在产出正在从资本制约转向资本与劳动双重制约,通胀治理的难度也在加大。

The article demonstrates theoretically that when unlimited labor supply condition turns to limited labor supply, the price effect of output gap will present two transitions ： firstly, it will affect capital price and wage simultaneously instead of only affecting capital price as before; secondly, its effect on product price will be enhanced. Based on quarterly macroeconomic data, we use four filtering methods including HP, BK, CF and Kalman filtering to estimate China＇s Output gap and adopt Gordon（1996） model to test its price effect. We find that its effect on PP1 is actually becoming more powerful than before since 2005. At the same time its effect on wage index begins to be significant since then. These conclusions indicate that China＇s potential output begins to be restricted by both capital and labor capacity instead of only being restricted by capital capacity as before, which makes China＇s inflation regulation more difficult.