中国居民消费价格波动:价格粘性、定价模式及其政策含义

The Fluctuations of China's Consumer Price: Sticky Price, Price Setting and Policy Experiments

本文通过考察中国居民消费价格波动的特征事实,发现其存在一定程度的价格粘性现象。与食品、工业消费品相比,服务的价格粘性程度更为明显。进一步的定价模式检验指出,中国居民消费价格总体上与状态相关,其中,食品、工业消费品价格与状态相关,而服务价格与时间相关。这表明尽管中国经济总体上已经达到了市场经济的标准,但各个行业市场化程度差异较大。食品、工业消费品市场化程度较高,而服务业市场化程度较低。服务业较低的市场化程度意味着其存在一些市场失灵现象。通过寻找各类商品及服务价格波动的"非敏感区间",同时验证CPI分解的稳健性,可发现较高的市场化程度有益于行业的稳定性。最后,本文的实证结果支持关于居民消费价格与状态相关的理论假说,SDP框架下的定价模式比TDP更符合中国实际。

By examining the stylized facts on fluctuations of China＇s consumer prices, the paper finds consumer prices are sticky. Compared with the food, industrial consumer goods, stickiness in services price is more obvious. And the evidences preferring China＇s consumer price is state-dependent as a whole are found by testing two price setting models. Nevertheless, service prices are time-dependent while food prices and industrial consumer goods prices are state-dependent. This means that the process of market liberalization in various sectors is different, which goes faster in food and industrial goods than service sector, though China has owned market-oriented economy. By looking for ＂ non-sensitive range＂ in all kinds of goods and services and verifying the robustness of CPI decomposition, the paper confirms higher degree of market liberalization is conducive to the stability of industries. Finally, the empirical results support the state-dependent pricing hypothesis, which means SDP is more in line with China＇s economic realities than TDP.