中国税收收入规模变化的规则性、政策态势及其稳定效应

Policy Regularity and Characteristics of Changes in Tax Revenues Size and Macroeconomic Stability in China

20世纪90年代中期以来,税收收入持续快速增长成为中国经济一个非常独特的现象。基于1992—2009年间的季度数据,本文考察了中国税收收入规模变化的规则性、政策态势及其对政府债务可持续性和宏观经济稳定的影响,以期对这一重要经济现象进行深入政策解析。研究表明,1992年以来税收收入规模变化具有较好的规则性,但在不同时期表现出不同的政策态势:1998年以前为积极的和顺周期态势,1998年以来则为消极的和反周期态势,表明税收政策态势转变,即更加积极地追求产出稳定特别是政府债务可持续性。这在确保稳健的政府债务状况和产出稳定方面发挥了非常重要的作用。分析还表明,税收收入规模变化的规则性有助于增强政策有效性,更好地促进宏观经济稳定;税收政策与货币政策在1998年以前和2008年世界金融危机期间出现了明显错配,1998—2007年间则具有很好的协调性。

Using quarterly data in the period 1992--2009, this paper investigates the policy regularity and characteristics of the changes in the size of tax revenue, and its effects on macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability in China. This paper finds that the behaviors of the size of tax revenue in China can be adequately described in terms of a simple policy rule function. Taxation policy tends to be active and procyclical in the pre - 1998 period, and switches thereafter to be passive and countercyclical, indicating that the rapid growth of tax revenues since the mid -1990s is mainly due to the regime switch in taxation policy, which is helpful for macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability. Further analysis shows that taxation and monetary policies switch well synchronously during the period 1998--2007, but appear mismatched in the pre- 1998 and post- 2008 periods.