重大核事故影响下国际铀价格趋势预测研究

Study of the International Uranium Price after a Nuclear Accident

核事故是影响着人类社会对核电的选择,也影响国际市场铀资源产品价格走势。本文以事件法为主要研究方法,系统分析前苏联切尔诺贝利、美国三里岛等重大核事故对国际市场铀资源产品价格的影响。通过分析发现,INES7级核事故对国际铀市场的影响长达14年,使铀的价格下降约60%。日本福岛核事故等级目前已调整至最高的7级,意味着国际市场铀的价格将长期持续低迷,并最终将在(24～30)美元/磅跌至谷底。文章最后建议趁国际市场低迷期,我国应加快国家核电建设进程;建立专业的铀资源产品储备公司,储备核电燃料;改核电财政补贴为技术补贴,促进产业升级,减少贸易摩擦;通过资本运作,建立国外铀资源供应基地,增加能源安全。

The past few years have witnessed marked volatility in uranium prices measured in both nominal and real terms.A nuclear accident is one of the major factors that affect the uranium price in the international uranium market and also the choice of nuclear power applications.To examine the real effects of a nuclear accident on the international uranium market and taking the event method as a major tool,we systematically analyzed the uranium price affected from serious nuclear disasters,such as Chernobyl and Three Mile Island.To precede the study,we computed the monthly data of uranium return from 1985/6 through 2011/12,acquired from the IMF.First,we innovatively constructed an index of international market energy resource prices including uranium,oil,natural gas,and coal,and then calculated the rate of energy market return.Second,we used the Market Model（MM） to specify the relationship between uranium and the international energy market.Third,using the MM we computed the expected return and abnormal return of uranium.Fourth,to judge the extent and the horizon of the uranium price in an international market affected by nuclear accidents we applied a time series endogenous break test to make sure that the point of price trend change corresponded to the timing of major nuclear accidents.Last,we analyzed other factors that may affect the international market uranium price,such as change in uranium supply and demand,and variations in the international energy environment.These factors were then excluded from the final analysis.We conclude that an accident scaled 7 by INES would weaken the international uranium market for up to 14 years,and the price would fall about 60%.The Fukushima accident was recently upgraded to 7,which means that the price of international uranium market will go down for a long time,and will reach the bottom at（24~30） $/lbs.Based on this analysis,we suggest that when the international uranium market faces a downturn,China should accelerate the construction,inspection and approval of nuclear power projects,construct a professional uranium reserve company to store nuclear fuel,change fiscal subsidies to technological ones to upgrade the nuclear power industry and ease trade friction,and build an overseas base of uranium supply through capital operations to maintain national energy security.