基于LEAP的中国电力需求情景及其不确定性分析

Scenario Analysis of Chinese Power Demands and Uncertainty Assessment Based on the LEAP Model

本文采用LEAP模型能源需求模块的基本思想,对现有大量研究结果进行归纳和总结,在此基础上设置2020年、2030年、2040年和2050年影响我国电力需求各主要参数的三种情景——强电气化情景、基准情景以及弱电气化情景,对我国电力需求量进行情景分析。同时本文还将构建各主要参数的概率分布,运用蒙特卡罗方法对基准情景下电力需求结果进行不确定性评价。结果表明,未来我国电力需求将经历先快速增加后缓慢增长的过程,到2050年,三种情景下我国电力需求量将分别达到13573.6TWh、9443.2TWh和6578.57TWh。各年份基准情景分析结果的不确定性都在11%以内,但随着时间的推进,不确定性显著增加。对不确定性结果的敏感性分析表明,各年份不确定的关键来源也各不相同,具体表现在,2030年以前,不确定性主要来自于产业结构以及工业内部结构调整的进程;而到2030年以后,则主要来自于经济总体增长状况以及居民生活和服务部门的用能方式上。

The energy situation in China is full of coal and short of oil and natural gas.The power system will determine the future of energy transition and carbon reduction in China.Power demand analysis is the prerequisite and foundation of power system analysis.The Energy Demand Module of Long-range Energy Alternative Planning model（LEAP） divides the power demand sector into the residential sector,four high-power-intensified sector（iron and steel,ammonia,aluminum and cement）,the service sector,and other sectors.Here,three scenarios are established：strengthen electrization scenario,reference scenario,and weak electrization scenario.By reviewing current research,parameters that influence the power demand will be set in the year 2020,2030,2040 and 2050 and China＇s power demand will be calculated by the LEAP algorithm.In order to evaluate the uncertainty of the reference scenario results,this paper will also establish the probability distribution of each parameter and derive the overall probability distribution of the power demand using the Monte Carlo Method.We found that China＇s power demand will grow slower than it has in the past ten years under the reference scenario.From 2010 to 2050,the power demand will first grow quickly and then slow;the numbers under the reference scenario in each year will be 5004 TWh,6418.65 TWh,8095.83 TWh and 9443.16 TWh.Power demand under the strengthen electrization scenario will be 20%~45% higher than the reference scenario,and the number under the weak electrization scenario will be 15%~35% lower.To 2050,the demands under three scenarios are 13573.6 TWh,9443.2 TWh,and 6578.57 TWh.Based on a 95% confidence interval,the uncertainty of the reference scenario in each year will be less than 11%,but will increase as time moves forward,which,in detail,are：2020：5004.00-7.70%~5004.00＋4.26%;2030：6418.65-6.23%~6418.65＋10.1%;2040：8095.83-8.12%~8095.83＋9.41%;2050：9443.16-10.7%~9443.16＋10.32%.Our sensitivity analysis shows that each year the key source of the uncertainty varies：before 2030 the main uncertainty comes from adjustment of the industrial structure and after 2030 the main uncertainty comes from the overall GDP growth rate and the energy consumption module of the residential sector and service sector.