空间集聚、区位选择与江苏省外商直接投资:空间计量实证研究

Spatial Agglomeration,Location Choice and Distribution of FDI in Jiangsu Province:Spatial Econometrics Empirical Analysis

定量概述江苏省外商直接投资发展历程,根据外商直接投资区位选择的区位成本、国际贸易、产业组织和邓宁折衷理论,从成本、经济、集聚、制度等方面,运用1999-2010年FDI数据,对江苏FDI区位选择影响因素进行空间计量实证分析,研究结果表明:1)江苏FDI发展差异总体趋势是绝对差异在逐年扩大,相对差异呈缓慢下降;2)江苏FDI空间趋于非均衡分布,"核心-外围"空间格局有所改变;3)集聚程度、经济发展水平、工业化水平、基础设施、劳动成本是江苏FDI区位选择的决定性影响因素;4)外资产出率、城市化水平、人力资本、对外开放度等负相关影响因素在江苏FDI区位选择中的重要程度显著性下降.江苏应根据后金融危机时代全球FDI新的发展趋势和特征,积极承接国际产业转移,全面参与全球产业分工,加快引导外商投资重点投向现代农业、现代服务业、新兴产业、高新技术产业等领域,优化外资投资方式、投资结构和地区分布.

In this paper, on the basis of quantitative analysis the development process of foreign direct investment in Jiangsu Province, the author use spatial econometrics model and empirically research the influencing factors of FDI location choice in Jiangsu province using the data during 1999 to 2010 from the aspects of cost, economy, agglomeration, systems and etc. according to the theories of location costs, international trade, industrial organization and Dunning＇s eclectic paradigm which describe the location choices of foreign direct invest- ment. The results show that： The absoluto difference of Jiangsu＇s FDI in the overall trend is expanding year by year, and the relative difference was slowly decline. The spatial distri- bution of FDI in Jiangsu province is tending to spatial non-equilibrium distribution and the core-periphery space pattern is changing. It is the decisive factors of FDI location choice that agglomeration level, level of economic development, the level of industrialization, infrastruc- ture and labor costs. Although the coefficient of the impact factor is negative factors such as foreign capital-output ratio, the level openness which axe decreasing the degree of urbanization, human capital and the degree of of importance and effects on the location choice of FDI in Jiangsu province. Finally, Jiangsu province should actively undertake international industrial transfer and fully participate division of labor in global based on the trends and characteristics of global FDI after the post-financial crisis, and also focus on quickly guiding foreign investment to the modern agriculture industries, modern services industries, new in- dustries and high-tech industries etc. in order to Optimizing investment model, investment structure and spatial distribution of FDI.