摘要
为定量评价化工园区相邻设备之间由于事故传播而导致的事故多米诺效应及其风险,基于Monte-Carlo方法及probit模型建立超压导致的事故多米诺效应定量风险评价模型。对液化石油气(LPG)蒸气云爆炸(VCE)过程中储罐泄漏数学模型中的随机参数进行Monte-Carlo模拟,通过概率方法对超压等扩展向量导致的多米诺效应的事故场景进行分析,并以常压容器的probit模型计算二次目标设备的损坏概率,以英国HSE的人员伤亡评估probit标准对事故多米诺效应后果进行定量化分析。结果表明:在液化石油气VCE中超压是导致多米诺效应的主要因素,可以忽略碎片的影响;在液化石油气VCE中虽然考虑多米诺效应时的个人风险及社会风险比不考虑时的大,但在二次事故局限于池火的情况下,由超压导致的池火事故对个人风险的影响较小。
In order to quantitatively assess domino effects resulting from accident propagation between adjacent pieces of equipment in a chemical industry park and their risk,a quantitative risk assessment of domino effects caused by blast wave was built based on the Monte-Carlo method and probit models.Leak model parameters were simulated using Monte-Carlo method according to the leak mathematical model in the overpressure calculation process of liquefied petroleum gas（LPG） VCE.Then,major accident scenarios were analyzed based on mathematical models and means of probability analysis for the domino scenarios caused by escalation factor like overpressure and fragments.And the secondary target device damage probabilities were calculated using probit model for atmospheric vessel.Individual risk maps and social risk curve were put forward by quantitatively analyzing the consequences of the domino effect according to HSE probit standards for human vulnerability.The results show that overpressure is the main escalation factor in the LPG vapor cloud explosion,that the effect of fragments can be neglected,that individual risk and social risk are bigger when considering domino effect in LPG vapor cloud explosion,and that the pool fire caused by blast wave has a less strong effect on individual risk.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第9期51-56,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
