基于系统仿真的装备故障后飞行风险定量评估

Flight Safety and Reliability Research Based on System Simulation

为解决装备故障引起的飞行风险难于定量评估的问题,对装备故障引起的危害过程、危害后果进行定量分析,建立飞行风险评估模型。对故障后的驾驶员的相应响应过程进行研究,建立综合考虑"非线性"和"随机性"的人-机系统模型。通过系统仿真得到飞行风险决定性参数的极值样本,应用基于极值理论的小概率事件评估方法,以飞机实际飞行课目中的电传操纵系统故障为例,进行装备故障后飞行风险综合评估和安全性定量分析。计算结果表明,装备故障后风险与人机复杂系统特征密切相关。

In order to quantificationally assess the flight risk caused by equipment failure,a flight risk assessment model was built.The pilot response process to some equipment failure was studied.Taking into account of nonlinear and randomicity,a pilot-aircraft system model was built.Samples of flight risk decisive parameters were obtained from system simulation.Risk evaluation method of small probability events based on Extreme Value Theory was studied.Taking FBW system failures in real flight subjects as an example,the flight risk after failure was evaluated and analyzed.The calculation results show that the equipment failure risk is closely related to man-machine complex system characteristics.