煤矿安全状况关键指标变化特征的R/S分析

R/S Analysis of Variation Characteristics of Safety Situation Key Indexes of Coal Mines

为掌握煤矿安全状况关键指标变化特征及规律,应用分形理论中的R/S分析方法对2001—2010年我国煤矿安全生产百万吨死亡率、煤矿事故死亡人数、瓦斯事故死亡人数等安全状况关键指标建立分形时间序列。结果表明:煤矿安全状况关键指标是分数布朗运动,有明显的赫斯特现象和分形特征,分形维数为1.055 3～1.073 5;煤矿安全状况关键指标的分形时间序列具有明显的趋势性,赫斯特指数为0.926 5～0.944 7,煤矿安全生产持续好转的趋势性很强。用R/S分析方法,能较好地反映煤矿安全生产复杂非线性系统的动力学特征。

In order to grasp the variation characteristics and laws of the safety situation in coal mines,a fractal time series of the key indexes of safety production situation were established using the million tons mortality,the deaths of accidents,and the deaths of gas accident from 2001 to 2010 in coal mines in China based on R/S analysis.The results show that the key indexes of coal mine safety situation are the fractional Brownian motion,they have obviously Hurst phenomenon and fractal characteristics,the fractal dimension of three key indexes above is between 1.055 3-1.073 5,that the key indexes of the coal mine production safety situation of the fractal time series have a significant trend,Hurst index is 0.926 5-0.944 7,that the safety situation of the coal mines has a strong trend towards sustained improvements,and that R/S analysis method can better reflect the dynamic characteristics of complex nonlinear systems of coal mine safety production.