摘要
为探索船舶值班驾驶员(OOW)在船舶避险中的可靠性——人为失误概率,基于CREAM,建立值班驾驶员避险中的可靠性计算模型。采用任务细化、动作分解方法,提炼出驾驶员避险事件的理想序列模型,确定子任务中的认知行为。通过专家评价驾驶员身处的情境,运用改造的三角白化权函数、Bayesian-CREAM网络,得出驾驶员4种不同控制模式的概率值。据此修正CREAM中人的基本失误概率值。根据可靠性串联和并联原理,计算出班驾驶员避险中的可靠性程度。最后,以实例验证,得到航行值班驾驶员在避险过程中的人为失误概率在10-5数量级。
In order to study the reliability of OOW avoiding danger at sea,a CREAM-based reliability analysis was established.The ideal serial model of OOW＇s avoidance action was refined by task and action decomposition so as to identify all sub-tasks of each action.Probabilities of 4 control modes were obtained based on experts＇ evaluation of CPCs（Common performance conditions）,reconstructed Whitenization Weight Function and Bayesian-CREAM network.The probabilities were used to correct the human basic error probability.The value of OOW＇s error probability was calculated with the help of reliability serials and parallel principle.Following a case study,the probability of OOW＇s error,about 10-5 magnitude,was found.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第9期90-96,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(51149001)
