用有序Logistic模型分析恒牙患龋程度与若干暴露因素的关系

Analysis of the Relationship between the Decaying Degree of Permanent Teeth and Certain Exposure Factors with Ordinal Logistic Model

目的 :进一步分析恒牙患龋程度与若干暴露因素的关系 ;方法 :采用有序Logistic回归进行分析 ;结果 :年龄是患龋的最大危险因素 ,随着年龄的增长患龋的牙数有增多的趋势 ,同样 ,性别、城市、职业、教育和水氟度也是患龋的重要影响因素 ;结论 :可以将暴露因素对恒牙患龋的影响程度的大小和方向定量化 ,测定各因素对恒牙患龋程度的综合作用及趋势 ,利用预测概率公式可以预测任何给定条件下个体平均恒牙患龋牙数的概率 ,根据模型可适当改变某些暴露因素的水平预防恒牙患龋。

Objective: To analyze the relationship between the decaying degree of permanent teeth and some exposure factors. Method:Ordinal logistic regression model was used in this study. Results:It was shown that age was the most important factor and with the age increase,the number of decayed teeth tended to increase. Sex,city of residence,occupation,education and fluorine concentration in water were among the other important factors. Conclusion: With this model the degree and the direction of the effect of the risk factors on permanent teeth decaying could be quantified,and their synthetical effect and the tendency could be determined. Using the probability_forecasting formular,the probability of the average number of decayed teeth in individuals could be calculated under giving conditions.