摘要
对2012年6—8月T639、ECMWF(文中简称EC)及日本(文中简称JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验。结果表明:三家模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。比较而言,EC模式对各系统及要素的预报更接近实况。对于1211号强台风海葵(Haikui)的路径及强度预报,EC模式预报效果与零场接近,T639模式和日本模式预报与实况相差较大。
The performance of medium-range forecast is verified and compared for the models of T639, ECMWF and Japan from June to August 2012. The results show that the three models have good perform- ance on predicting the variation and adjustment of atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high lati- tude areas. Comparatively speaking, EC has better performance on forecasting synoptic systems and ele- ments than T639 and JP models, and is the best at the prediction of the track and intensity of typhoon Haikui among all models.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第11期1423-1428,共6页
Meteorological Monthly
关键词
T639模式
ECMWF模式
JP模式
中期预报性能
天气学检验
T639 model, ECMWF model, JP model, the performance of medium-range forecasting, synop- tic verification
