考虑气候因子变化的湖泊富营养化模型研究进展

Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: A review

气候因子是影响湖泊营养状态和进程的主要自然因素.在全球气候变化的趋势下,将气候因子的变化纳入湖泊富营养化模型中,可以为湖泊演化趋势分析和环境管理决策提供技术支持.本文首先分析了气温、降水、光照和大气等气候因子对湖泊富营养化的影响,进而对考虑气候因子变化的数理统计与分析模型、生态动力学模型、系统生态学模型及智能算法等的研究进行了综述.在此基础上,对完善气候因子变化下湖泊营养状态变化的模型研究进行了展望:1)加强气候因子作用于湖泊营养状态的机理研究;2)选择合适的气候模拟模型,合理设置气候变化情景,在不同模型嵌套时保证时空尺度的匹配;3)以水动力学模型为基础,耦合生态模型及智能算法等,并结合良好的气候模拟模型,以精确模拟预测气候变化下湖泊富营养化的演化过程和趋势.

Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the anal- ysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutroph- ication modeling in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climat- ic factors change were put forward, including 1 ） to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms relat- ed to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophie status, 2） to identify the appropriate sim- ulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolu- tions, and 3） to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate predic- tion of lake eutrophication under climatic change.