基于情景分析的应急路径选择研究

Emergency Path Selection Based on Scenario Analysis

非常规突发事件发生发展的不确定性,造成了不确定的应急运输路网情景。为了在多种不确定性情景下进行应急路径选择决策,本文基于情景分析方法,建立了在应急条件下路网环境的情景分析树和应急路网的理想路径,将应急路网情景蕴含在具有不确定性的多属性向量中,而后构建了嵌入情景的应急路径选择模型并给出其求解算法,最后通过算例对基于情景分析的应急路径选择方法的可行性和有效性进行了分析与验证。

The uncertainty of the occurrence and development of unconventional emergencies leads to uncertain scenarios of emergency transport network.In order to make a decision of emergency routing under a variety of uncertain scenarios,the paper,based on scenario analysis method,establishes a scenario tree and an ideal path of the emergency transport network and develops a multi-attribute vector containing its uncertain scenarios.After that,an emergency path selection model with scenarios embedded is constructed,and its algorithm is designed.Finally an example is shown to analyze and illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the emergency path selection method based on scenario analysis.