基于模糊理论民机国外适航取证风险的评价

Evaluation on Foreign Airworthiness Evidencing Risks of Civil Planes Based on the Fuzzy Theory

《国际民用航空公约》规定民用飞机出口国外,必须首先取得进口国适航当局的型号认可,由于文化、法律、地域、经济、技术等等的不同而导致的不确定性,使民用飞机出口国开展国外适航取证必然面临着诸多风险,也必须进行风险评价和风险的防范对策研究。从民用飞机国外适航取证实践出发,分析了民用飞机国外适航取证的风险因素,引入项目风险管理中对多因素多层级风险定量评估的模糊数学评价方法,对民用飞机国外适航取证项目开展风险评估进行有益的尝试,通过项目的风险防范和对策模型的建立,提出民用飞机国外适航取证项目风险的防范和对策建议。

The International Civil Aviation Covenant specifies that to export civil planes,a country has to procure model certification from airworthiness authorities of the importing country.Due to uncertainties caused by culture,law,region,economy,and technology,the exporting country is faced with a variety of risks in airworthiness evidencing,and also should carry out the study on countermeasures against risk evaluation.The article,from the practice of foreign airworthiness evidencing of civil planes,analyzes risk factors in the process,and introduces the fuzzy mathematical evaluation method of quantitative evaluation of multi-factor,multi-level risks in project risk management.Through the establishment of risk prevention and countermeasure models,the article brings forth preventative and countermeasure suggestions on risks of foreign airworthiness evidencing of civil planes.