经济发展与环境质量关系实证研究——以河南省18个省辖市为例

Empirical Analysis of Industrial Economic Growth and Environmental Quality:Based on 18 Provincial Cities in Henan Province

基于2009年河南省18个省辖市的经济发展与环境质量数据,以及环境库兹涅茨假说,利用二次多项式和三次多项式模型对河南省工业经济发展与工业"三废"排放量的关系进行检验.结果显示,河南省环境库茨涅茨曲线不同于典型的倒"U"型曲线,工业总产值和环境质量、固体废弃物排放量之间均呈倒"N"型曲线关系,和废气排放量之间呈倒"U"型曲线关系,而和废水排放量之间呈弱正相关关系,整体环境呈现向好趋势.但是经济增长并不能自动改善环境质量,只有经历"后治理"这一阶段,环境质量才会出现好转.曲线陡峭以及拐点的提前出现是经济和环境没有协调发展所致,在以后的发展过程中应抓好两者的协调工作.

Based on the data of economic growth and environmental quality of 18 provincial cities in Henan Province in 2009, as well as the environmental Kuznets hypothesis, the relationship of the industrial growth and industrial ＂three wastes＂ emissions was tested by quadratic polynomial and cubic polynomial model. The results showes that the environment kuznets curve of Henan province is dif{erent from the typical inverted ＂U＂ type, except of emissions diacharge. The relationship of industrial output value and environment quality is in- verted ＂N＂ type consistent with industrial output value and solid waste discharge, weakly positively relation- ship is related to industrial output value and waste water discharge. So the overall environmental quality will have a good trend.