基于VAR模型的城镇化、工业化与金融发展关系分析——以中原经济区为例

An Analysis on the Relationship between Urbanization, Industrialization and Financial Development——A Case Study of the Central Plains Economic Zone

城镇化、工业化和金融体系的发展都是区域经济发展中的三个重要方面,但是三者间的关系还不明确。笔者对河南省1978年～2010年之间城镇化、工业化和金融发展的动态关系进行了分析,运用VAR模型、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果性检验和方差分解等定量分析方法进行了实证研究。结果表明,三者之间存在着长期均衡关系。其中,工业化对于城镇化有着显著的作用。金融发展对于工业化和城镇化发展都有促进作用,并且影响随着时间逐渐增加。

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between urbanization, industrialization and financial development in Henan Province with data between 1978 and 2010 by quantitative methods of VAR model, Johansen co-integration test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition. The results show there is long-term equilibrium relationship between the three series. The industrialization is the granger causality on urbanization. Financial development has a role on industrialization and urbanization, and the impacts in- crease over time. Policy advices proposed on empirical research