碳排放和能源消费约束下的中国绿色全要素生产率和经济增长研究——基于扩展的索洛模型分析

A Study on the Green Total Factor Productivity and Economic Growth of China Constrained by Carbon Emissions and Energy Consumption——Analysis Based on an Expanded Solow Model

传统的全要素生产率没有考虑非期望产出CO2排放增加的约束问题。笔者估算出中国1978年～2008年能源消费和CO2排放约束下的绿色全要素生产率,同时对索洛模型进行扩展,得到能源消费、CO2排放和技术进步对经济增长的贡献作用及大小。结果表明,中国经济快速增长的源泉是高能耗和大量的资本投入,其代价是CO2的高排放;技术进步对经济增长的整体正向作用不大;CO排放作为环境成本对经济增长的负向影响较为显著。

The traditional total factor productivity ignores the constrained problem of increasing carbon emissions as the undesired out- put. This paper estimates the green total factor productivity of China including the energy consumption and carbon emissions from 1978 to 2008, and develops an extended Solow model to find the contributing role and size of energy usage, carbon dioxide emissions and technological progress to economic growth. The results show that China＇ s economic growth is driven by high energy consumption and investment, and pay a high price for abundant carbon emissions; the technological progress efficiency little contributes to the overall positive effect of economic growth; the negative impact of carbon dioxide emission is more significant as a proxy for the environmental costs of economic growth.