基于情境的突发事件演化网络约简研究

Research of Emergency Evolving Network Reduction Based on Circumstance

突发事件的发生、演化与事件所处的情境密切相关,情境决定了事件的演化行为和演化过程。以突发事件演化网络为研究对象,充分考虑事件演化对情境的依赖,分析了演化网络的组成要素,构建了基于情境的突发事件演化网络模型,该模型包括突发事件集、承灾载体集、关联关系集和情境四个变量。以该模型为基础,提出了突发事件演化网络的约简流程和方法,将事件之间的潜在关联转化为基于情境的实际关联,并以地震事件为例,对本文提出的演化网络模型和约简方法的可行性、有效性进行验证。研究结果表明基于情境的突发事件演化网络模型和约简方法能够根据事件发生时的情境,将事件演化网络中与情境不相关的事件约去,简化事件演化网络,科学预测事件的演化方向。

The occurrence and evolution of emergency are closely related to circumstance.The evolution action and evolution process are determined by the circumstance.This study,taking evolving network of emergency as the research object,analyzes the component of an evolving network,and develops an evolving network model of emergency,which describes the relationships between event and circumstance.The model consists of emergency set,hazard affected bodies set,incidence relation set and circumstance set.The study puts forward the reduction process and method about emergency evolving network to translate the potential relevance into actual relevance based on circumstance,and takes the earthquake evolving network reduction as an example to prove the feasibility and validity of the model and method.These findings may be useful to predict the evolution direction scientifically according to the specific circumstance.