碳排放影子价格模型——以深圳市电力行业为例

Carbon Emissions Allowance Shadow Price Model:An Application in Power Generation Sector of Shenzhen

以煤电为主的电力行业是中国最大的温室气体(Green House Gas,GHG)排放部门,该部门GHG排放量约占全国GHG排放总量的40%,因此能否有效控制电力行业GHG排放增长将直接影响国家GHG减排目标能否顺利实现。在电力行业碳排放受限情况下,GHG排放权(也称碳排放权)成为电力企业生产所必须获取的一种资源。在此基础上,本文构建了以系统发电总成本最小化为目标的电力系统数学规划模型,利用对偶原理求解GHG排放权的影子价格。以深圳电网为案例,本文计算了电力系统GHG排放权的影子价格并对其主要影响因素进行分析。研究结果显示:碳排放总量对GHG排放权影子价格的影响较大,同时各种能源资源的丰富程度也会对其产生影响;核能发电可以降低发电系统平均成本,也有助于减少发电系统对碳排放权的需求,因此可以有效抑制碳排放权资源影子价格的上升;化石能源发电碳捕集和封存(Carbon Capture and Storage,CCS)改造也可以减少发电系统对碳排放权资源的需求,也会起到降低碳排放权影子价格的效果。本文所得的GHG排放权资源影子价格可以为碳排放权定价和制定碳税税率提供科学参考。

The coal-based power industry is the largest greenhouse gases （Green House Gas, GHG） emitting sector in China, accounting for 40% of the total GHG emissions. Whether the GHG emissions reduction target of China can be successfully achieved depends largely on emissions growth from the power industry being effectively controlled. The GHG emissions allowance becomes a valuable resource if there is a GHG emission cap on power industry. This paper constructed a mathematical programming model at the aim of minimizing the total cost of the power system and obtained the shadow price of emission allowance according to duality principle. Shenzhen grid was selected as a case study. Shadow price of allowance was calculated according to the model and the main factors influencing it were analyzed. The results demonstrated that the shadow price of emission allowance was largely influenced by the emission cap and the energy resource richness. Nuclear power decreases the average cost of electricity of the power system and avoids the sharp increase of carbon price. The carbon capture and storage technology can also decrease the demand of carbon emission allowance and the carbon price. Shadow price of the allowance can serve as an important reference to determine the price of the GHG emissions allowance or carbon tax rate.