中日贸易的“J曲线效应”实证分析与启示

Positive Analysis and Enlightenment from “the J-curve Effect” Based on the Trade Balance between China and Japan

统计发现1993年1月到2010年12月人民币对日元的4个贬值区间只有第一个区间净出口经过23个月后超过贬值前水平,其它3个区间净出口都没有超过贬值前水平,不存在传统的J曲线。计量分析表明长期中人民币对日元贬值使出口进口比例下降,这主要是因为进口增加更多造成;短期中人民币贬值导致出口进口比例下降,3个季度后出口进口比上升。

The statistics result finds that the net export only in the first appreciation scan after 23 months excels the level before RMB depreciation in four depreciation scans in the exchange of Renminbi to Japanese Yen from January, 1993 to December, 2010, while the net export is no more than the level of pre-depreciation time in the other three scans, as a result, the tradition J- curve does not exist. Calculation analysis shows that the long-run depreciation of Renminbi to Japanese Yen causes the decrease of the ratio of export to import because import is more than export, that short-term exchange rate depreciation leads to the decrease of the proportion of export to import and that the rate of export to import rises after 3 quarters.