论天气预报中的集合预报初值扰动策略

The Weather Forecast Theory of the Ensemble Forecast Initial Disturbance Strategies

近年来,天气预报的准确性一直受人们的关注,因为,它与人们的生命财产安全息息相关,是人们生活中不可或缺的重要组成部分。然而,随着气候环境的日益复杂,传统的单个模式往往很难提高数值模式天气预报的可用度和准确率,需要采用集合方法,对初值进行扰动后集合,开展集合预报模式。主要是对天气预报中的集合预报初值扰动进行探讨分析,并提出自己相应的观点。

In recent years, the weather forecast accuracy has been affected by the attention of people, because it with people＇s life and property safety is closely related to people＇s life is an important part of. However, with the increasingly complex climate environment, the traditional single model it is often difficult to improve numerical model the weather forecast availability and accuracy, need to adopt set method, the initial value for collection after disturbance, and carry out set forecast model. The weather forecast is mainly to the ensemble forecast initial disturbance on the analysis, and put forward their corresponding point of view.