基于改进灰色模型的东北地区铁路货运量预测

Railway freight volume forecast in northeast region based on the improved gray model

铁路货运量预测在国家和区域经济发展规划中具有十分重要的作用。灰色GM(1,1)预测模型被广泛应用于铁路货运量预测研究中。本文在建立灰色GM(1,1)模型的基础上,采用更符合东北地区经济发展态势的改进灰色模型——新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对东北地区2006—2011年铁路货运量进行预测。通过对原始数据与预测数据的精度检验后发现:新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型满足四种精度检验要求,符合一级预测标准并适合中长期预测,适合于东北地区铁路货运量的预测研究。最后应用新模型预测2012—2015年东北地区的铁路货运量,使得预测数据更加合理化。与灰色预测的基本模型相比,改进的预测模型具有较好的实用价值。观察预测数据发现东北地区货运量呈单调递增趋势,有良好的发展态势。

Forecasting railway freight volume plays a very important role in the national and regional economic development planning. The gray GM （ 1,1 ） model was widely used in railway freight volume forecast. On the basis of GM （ 1,1 ） model, metabolism model which could accord with the economic development trend well in northeast destrict, was used to forecast railway freight volume in the northeast region from 2006 to 2011. With the accuracy tests on both original data and prediction data, the metabolism model meets four kinds of accuracy requirements and reaches the first class standard, so the model is suitable for medium and long term forecast and railway freight volume forecast in northeast district. At last, the metabolism model was applied into forecast railway freight volume in the northeast region from 2012 to 2015 such that the prediction data became more reasonable. Secondly, in order to meet the state of the economic development and the ＂Twelfth Five - Year Plan＂ in the northeast region, the metabolism model was used to forecast the northeast region railway volume in next four years. Compared with the gray GM （ 1,1 ） model, the metabolism model as an improved forecast model has good practical value. It shows a good development trend for the predication data of railway freight volume in northeast region is monotone increasing.