深圳市1980～2009年疟疾发病率变化趋势的Cox-Stuart检验分析

Analysis of Cox-Stuart test of the trend of the incidence of malaria from 1980 to 2009 in Shenzhen City

目的分析深圳自建市以来历年疟疾的流行趋势,为该市疟疾防治提供科学依据。方法采用Cox-Stuart检验的升降趋势检验法对1980～2009年深圳疟疾的流行变化趋势进行分析。结果深圳市疟疾下降幅度明显,其发病率由20世纪80年代最高的1111.33/10万下降至目前的1/10万以下,下降幅度最大达99.98%,30年中疟疾发病率下降趋势经Cox-Stuart检验差异有统计学意义(P<0.005)。结论深圳市30年的疟防工作卓有成效,Cox-Stuart检验分析在传染病的趋势检验分析中有一定的应用价值。

Objective To analyze the epidemic trend of malaria in the past years since Shenzhen city was built, and to pro- vide scientific evidence for the prevention and treatment of malaria in the city. Methods The Cox-Stuart lifting trend test was used to analyze the epidemic trend of malaria from 1980 to 2009 in Shenzhen. Results The malaria in Shenzhen city was dropped significantly, the incidence of which was decreased from the highest 1 111.33/10 million in the 1980s to the current 1/10 million below, the highest decrease amplitude reached to 99.98%. Among 30 years, there were statistieally significant differences of the downward trend of the incidence of malaria tested by Cox-Stuart test （P 〈 0.005）. Conclusion The malaria control during the past 30 years in this city is very fruitful, analysis of Cox-Stuart test has a certain application value in the trend analysis of infectious disease.