青海湖流域主要生态系统服务价值驱动分析

Quantitative Analysis the Driving Factors of the Ecosystem Services Values by Land Use Change in the Qinghai Lake Basin

通过定量分析生态系统服务价值的变化和气候、GDP、个人储蓄和城市化水平等社会经济驱动因子之间的相关性和敏感性,以识别影响青海湖生态环境的主要影响因素,调控和管理青海湖区域生态保护。研究方法:生态系统服务估值,MATLAB.7.0多元线性回归分析,敏感性分析。研究结果:(1)2000～2008年青海湖流域的湿地和草地生态系统服务价值分别下降11.16%、13.23%,主要是受到GDP和气候暖干化的影响,但对GDP变化并不敏感,对城市化和气温变化极为敏感;(2)2000～2008年青海湖流域农地的生态系统服务下降了57.93%,主要受气候暖干化和城市化的驱动所致,同时对城市化和气温变化极为敏感。研究结论:青海湖流域生态环境恶化是气候变化和经济社会发展的长期综合作用结果,青海湖流域尤其是天峻县的经济发展应该以实施生态保护战略为主导。

The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the sensitivity and the correlation between the changes of ecosystem services value and the climate,social economic impact factors of land use change including NPPE,GDP,personal savings and the urbanization level,by calculated the value of ecosystem services for wetland,grassland,forestland and farmland in the Qinghai Lake basin from 2000 to 2008.It is also in order to be achieved regional ecological and economic sustainable development by identified the main factors and managed ecological protection in Qinghai Lake basin.Method employed in this paper is to use valuation of ecosystem services model,multiple linear regression model and the coefficient of sensitivity analysis.The results indicate：（1）From 2000 to 2008,the ecosystem services value of wetland and grassland decreased 11.16 and 13.23 percent,the changes of ecosystem services value in Qinghai Lake basin had a obvious negative correlation with the air temperature and GDP,meanwhile,they had more sensitive to air temperature and GDP the urbanization level than to GDP;（2） From 2000 to 2008,the ecosystem services value of farmland decreased 57.93 percent,the decreased was be induced and sensitive by warming-drying climate and the quickly urbanization.It revealed that,warming-drying climate was the main reasons for land use change in the Qinghai Lake basin,meanwhile,economic developing and strengthening of human activities increased deterioration of the ecological environment by having an influence on land use change.We should give a top priority to implementing the strategy of ecological protection in Qinghai lake basin,particular in Tianjun.