流域经济增长空间分异研究——基于2001～2009年长江流域数据的面板计量分析

RESEARCH ON SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN RIVER BASIN——BASED ON ECONOMETRICS OF PANEL DATA WITH THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN DATA(2001-2009)

流域经济是以水系为轴线的区域经济,其发展状况对国民经济有重要影响,其研究为区域开发提供新视角。在理论方法上,根据内生经济增长理论,采用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,构建一个包括技术进步、物质资本和人力资本作为内生要素的流域经济增长框架。在实践论证上,以长江为样本域,运用面板计量分析方法,测度生产要素对流域上中下游经济增长的影响。结果显示:不同生产要素对流域经济不同域段作用强度不同,且呈现出明显的梯度效应,即沿江而下,技术进步和人力资本对经济增长的贡献度逐渐加大,物质资本则恰好相反。在此基础上,提出缩小流域经济的不平衡程度的政策建议,主要包括促使流域上游地区人力资本开发、实施流域大开发战略和推进流域城市化等。

River-basin economy is a kind of regional economy which takes water system as axis.Its development has a major impact on the national economy,and its research provides a new perspective to regional exploitation.In theory,according to endogenous growth theory,using the Cobb-Douglas productive function,we built an economic growth framework of river basin,including advances of technology,capital investment and human capital as endogenous factor.In practice,taking the Yangtze River as a sample region,the article measured the effect of productived factors that promoted economic growth among the upper,middle and lower river basin by using econometrics of panel data.The result showed that the degree of productive factors influence was different with different areas.Furthermore,it showed gradient effects obviously.Namely,technological progress and human capital contribution to economic growth increased along the river;while physical capital was just converse.Based on these findings,the article proposed policy recommendations to narrow the economic imbalance in river basin,mainly including： promoting human resources development in the upper river-basin,implementing of river-basin development strategy and promoting river-basin urbanization.