工资上升、劳动力短缺与刘易斯拐点幻觉

Wage Rise,Labor Shortages and Illusion of Lewis Turning Point

很多学者在运用刘易斯模型分析中国劳动力短缺和涨薪潮问题时,不但忽略了该模型存在的一些缺陷,而且还误解了其中的一些重要观点,误以为中国刘易斯拐点已经到来,形成了刘易斯拐点幻觉。判别刘易斯拐点是否到来的主要依据应该是两部门实际收入差距和劳动生产率的变化,而不是现有文献常用的名义工资的变化。经验数据表明,近几年来中国两部门实际收入差距增长缓慢、劳动生产率呈现出扩大趋势,因此,中国刘易斯拐点尚未到来。

As many experts and scholars with Lewis population flow model analysis the problem of labour shortages and wage rise on China in recent years,not only ignored some flaws of the model,but also have misunderstood some of the important points,misconception that China ＂Lewis turning point＂ has come and formed ＂Lewis turning point＂ illusion.Distinguishing the ＂Lewis turning point＂ whether the arrival should be based primarily on the real income gap between the two departments and labor productivity changes,rather than the existing literature commonly used nominal wage changes.Empirical data show that China＇s real income gap of the two departments slowly growth and labor productivity showing a expanding trend between 2002 and 2010.Therefore,China＇s ＂Lewis turning point＂ yet to come.