DSGE模型、货币政策规则与汇率波动分析

On DSGE Models,China's Monetary Policy Rules and the Fluctuation in Exchange Rate

关于我国货币政策适合使用货币供应量规则还是利率规则,目前仍没有一致的观点。但是,在目前我国对利率进行市场化的进程中,对此二规则进行比较分析是必要的。本文在开放经济DSGE模型的框架下,研究不同货币政策规则下实际汇率受到三种不同冲击后所产生的不同结果。研究得出:相比于货币供应量规则,利率规则下,国内技术冲击、国外利率冲击和国外通货膨胀冲击均对实际汇率产生较小波动。而当两国消费替代缺乏弹性时,国内技术冲击、国外利率冲击和国外通货膨胀冲击均对实际汇率产生较大波动。

Currently,there is still not a consensus about whether China is more suitable to use money supply rules or interest rate rules to guide monetary policy.However,the analysis of the two rules is necessary in the process of interest rates liberalization.In the framework of an open economy DSGE model,this paper analyzed different results represented on the real exchange rate which caused by three different kinds of impacts under different monetary policy rules.The results show that comparing to the money supply rule,the impacts of domestic technology,foreign interest rate and foreign inflation make less fluctuation in the real exchange rate under the interest rate rule.When the substitution of the consumption between two countries lacks flexibility,the impacts of domestic technology,foreign interest rate and foreign inflation make more fluctuation in the real exchange rate.