基于VRA模型的我国国民收入、居民消费与投资的变动关系研究

The Study on the Relationship among National Income, Resident Consumption and Investment though the VAR Model

本文运用向量自回归模型(VAR模型)对我国国民收入、居民消费和资本形成总额之间的动态关系进行实证分析,结果表明:投资和居民消费的增加在短期能够带动经济的增长,但是从长期来看投资和居民消费对经济增长的贡献不明显。同时,投资能带动居民消费水平的提高,但是消费增加在拉动投资方面并未收到显著效果。因此,要实现三者的协调发展,既要要控制投资过快增长,转变经济增长方式,提高投资效率;又要培育和巩固消费热点,扩大消费需求。

The paper makes an empirical analysis on the dynamic relationship among national income, resident consumption and investment gross using Vector Auto Regression （VAR） model. The result shows that the increase of investment and resident consumption drive economic growth in short tenn. But in the long run, their contribution to the economic growth is not so distinct. Meanwhile, investment can drive resident consumption, but the increase of the resident consumption has not placed a significant effect on stimulating investment. Therefore, in order to achieve the coordinated development, it is necessary to control the excessive growth of investment, change the mode of economic growth and improve investment efficiency, and it is also necessary to nurture and consolidate consumption focus and expand consumer demand.