我国债务规模可持续性及风险状况分析

Analysis on the Sustainability and Risk Status of Government Debt in China

本文通过分析相关指标和建立计量经济模型研究了我国政府债务规模的可持续性及风险状况。通过分析表明:目前我国国债规模是可持续的,大多数风险指标均处在安全范围内,中国发生主权债务危机的可能性极低,与此同时,间接风险不容忽视,如社保基金缺口、地方政府债务风险、金融风险财政化等。

This study investigates the sustainability and risk status of government debt in china by analyzing the related index and established econometric model. The analysis shows that the scale of China＇s national debt is sustainable. Values of most risk indicators are within the safe range. The probability of sovereign debt crisis is extremely low in China. However, other indirect debt risks can＇t be ignored, such as the gap of social security fund, the local government debt and financial risk.