“十二五”时期我国投资规模合理空间分析

Analysis on the Reasonable Space of China’s Investment Scale during Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period

本文基于灰色理论以及增量资本产出率和经济增长目标,确定了"十二五"时期我国投资规模的合理空间。结果表明,当投资率不小于23.7%时,我国投资与GDP构成的灰色系统才会保持稳定增长的状态;在既定经济增长目标和增量资本产出率波动空间的约束下,"十二五"时期我国投资率的合理空间为[27.91%,41.86%];目前我国实际投资率已经突破了合理投资率的上限,我国投资率急需进行向下调整。

Based on gray theory, as well as the Incremental Capital-Output Ratio and economic growth targets, this paper determines reasonable space of the scale of investment in China during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period. The empirical results show that when the investment rate is above 23.7%, can the gray system of China＇s investment and GDP maintain a stable growth state; under the constraints of the established goals of economic growth and the fluctuations space of Incremental Capital-Output Ratio, it illustrates that the reasonable investment rate in China is between 27.91% and 41.86% during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period. However, in recent years, China＇s actual investment rate has exceeded the upper limit of the calculated reasonable rate of investment, therefore, it would be better to lower the investment rate of China.