动态随机一般均衡模型：文献研究与未来展望

DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELING:LITERATURE STUDY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型是近10多年来宏观经济学发展的主要标志物。它为研究经济增长和经济波动提供了统一的分析框架。DSGE模型的产生和发展大体上经历了实际的经济周期(RBC)模型和新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型两个阶段。DSGE模型是一种动态模型,又考虑了随机冲击,还具有所需数据信息较少的简约化特征,因而受到政策制定者尤其是中央银行的青睐。DSGE模型现在在理论基础、理论模型与实际数据的匹配性、模型的估计方法等方面还存在这样那样的问题,但是这个模型体现着现代宏观经济学的许多共识和发展趋势,随着贝叶斯方法与DSGE模型的有机融合,随着计算机性能和计算能力的不断提高,DSGE模型将会得到进一步发展和改进。

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling （DSGE） has been the major marker of macroeconomics development for more than 10 years. It provides a unified analytical framework for the study of economic growth and economic fluctuations. Development of DSGE may be divided into two pha- ses： real business cycle （RBC） models and the new Keynesian DSGE..DSGE models are dynamic, also stochastic, taking into account random shocks, and simplified, with fewer data and information, and thus subject to policy-makers, the central banks in particular. Disadvantages of DSGE modeling are some weak- ness in its theoretical foundation, imperfect matching between theoretical model and actual data, as well as estimation methods to be improved, etc. However, DSGE embodies some consensus and trends in modern macroeconomics, with the Bayesian method further integrating DSGE, and with improvement in capability and computing power of computer. DSGE modeling shall be further developed and improved.