基于有序Logit模型的农村人口自愿转移意愿研究——三峡生态屏障区的实证分析

RESEARCH ON THE VOLUNTARY MIGRATION OF RURAL POPULATION BASED ON ORDERED LOGIT MODEL——An Empirical Analysis of the Three Gorges Eco-barrier District

研究人口自愿性转移的意愿及影响因素,有利于转移政策的制定与完善,实现人口转移目标。本文基于对三峡生态屏障区农村人口转移的实地调查,运用有序Logit模型,从家庭基本情况、家庭资本、家庭社会保障水平、对以往移民政策的了解程度和其他社会因素等五个方面对其转移意愿进行了分析,研究表明:年龄、家庭参加医疗保险人数、对三峡移民政策了解程度、是否为原三峡移民和现有居住环境及对环境满意度等因素对农村人口的转移意愿有显著性影响。

Research on the voluntary migration of population and its factors was conducive to policy- making and policy development of the population transfer, and the achievement of the goal of migration. Based on the field survey of migration of the Three Gorges Eco-barrier District, this paper used ordered logit model to carry out the analysis of migration on the following five factors： the basic situation of the family, family capital, family social security level, their level of understanding of past immigration policy and other social factors. The study showed that： age, the number of family member to participate in the health insurance, the degree of understanding of immigration policy of the Three Gorges, the Three Gor- ges migrants, existing living environment, and satisfaction of environment had significant impacts on the rural population transfer.