全球复杂性视角下的中国快速城市化——空间逻辑与潜在风险

SPATIAL LOGIC AND RISKS OF CHINA'S RAPID URBANIZATION UNDER GLOBAL COMPLEXITY

从全球复杂性视角出发,将中国快速城市化解释为要素依赖型社会经济增长驱动下的时空演化产物,遵循从"人口红利"到"土地贴现"的空间逻辑。面对全球复杂性挑战,指出这种要素依赖型空间逻辑存在结构性缺陷,并孕育着潜在的环境、经济、社会、政治等多重风险:一是要素禀赋结构的市场扭曲,导致区域资源环境的严重危机;二是土地城市化的投资偏好,引起工业增长动力的提前消退;三是流动人口的不完全城市化,推动社会关系的多尺度极化;四是人口、工业和土地的非均衡城市化,造成政府信用的过度透支。为化解全球复杂性挑战之下的结构性缺陷及其潜在风险,建议实施城市化政策转型,应该从局限于特定边界内的、绩效优先的增长管理,转向注重全球-地方跨边界多样化联系的、兼顾经济-社会-环境多维公平的包容性治理。

China＇s rapid urbanization in the past 30 years can be abstracted as a spatial- temporal product of the socio-economic mechanism relying on productive factors, which represents the sustained dynamics from labor demographic bonus to land capital discount. In the context of the current increasing global complexity, this paper points out that this kind of productive factor-based spatial logic not only has structural limitations, but also brings about the potential environmental, economic, social, and political risks in multiple dimensions as follows： first, the crises in regional resources and environment due to the market distortion of productive factors; second, the disappearance of industrial growth impetus due to the investment preference to land urbanization; third, the social polarization caused by the incomplete urbanization of the floating population; four, the overdraft of government credit as a result of the unbalanced urbanization of population, industry, and land. Under such a circumstance, the paper proposes the transition of China＇s existing urbanization policies, so as to pursue the objective of sustainable urbanization in the future.