2010年江西省高安市肾综合征出血热重症死亡风险分析

Analysis on Death Risk of Severe Cases of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Gaoan City,Jiangxi Province in 2010

目的了解高安市2010年肾综合征出血热（HFRS）发病和死亡变化趋势特点，探讨重症病例突然增加的可能危险因素。方法使用高安市2006-2010年法定传染病网络直报系统HFRS病例信息，比较2010年与2006-2009年发病死亡分布特征；使用高安市2009-2010年HFRS监测信息，比较2010年与2009年临床特点。结果2010年江西省高安市HFRS报告发病率8．3／10万，病死率16．7％，死亡风险为2006-2009年的5．1倍（95％CI：2．2-12．4），死亡风险上升开始于2010年7月，不同性别、年龄和职业人群组死亡风险普遍增加，高危人群主要为40-59岁男性；2010年临床重症和死亡病例的比例较2009年明显升高（X^2=26．2，P〈0．01）。结论高安市2010年重症、死亡病例增加，可能与病毒型别的变化和暴露机会方式等变化有关。

Objective To investigate the characteristics of changing trend of incidence and death of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome （HFRS） in Gaoan City in 2010, and to explore the possible and sudden risk factors of the severe cases. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analyses were conducted on the incidence data of HFRS from 2006 to 2010 and the surveil- lance data of HFRS from 2009 to 2010 in Gaoan City. Results The l＂eported incidence rate of HFRS in 2010 was 8.3/ 100,000. The fatality rate of HFRS in 2010 was 16.7%. The risk of death in 2010 was 5.1 times those of 2006 - 2009 （95% CI = 2.2- 12.4）, which rose from July 2010. The risk of death in the groups with different genders, ages and occupations was generally increased. Men aged 40 - 59 years were the main high- risk population. As compared with 2009, the proportion of se- vere and death cases in 2010 was increased （X^2 = 26.2, P 〈 0.01）. Conclusions The number of severe and death cases was increased in Gaoan, Jiangxi Province in 2010. Based on the epidemiological characteristics and symptoms of HFRS, the increase of the cases may be related to the variation of virus types and exposure opportunities.