63349例九种恶性肿瘤住院费用及趋势预测分析

Hospitalization Expenses and Trend Prediction of Nine Types of Malignant Tumors: Analysis of 63,349 Cases

目的本文通过分析某省级肿瘤专科医院2004-2010年九种恶性肿瘤的住院费用,分析费用增长的成因,对九种恶性肿瘤的住院费用进行了预测,以期为卫生行政主管部门提供决策依据。方法采用了灰色预测模型(grayforecast model),使用Matlad7.0软件进行计算,预测2011-2015年九种恶性肿瘤的治疗费用。结果九种恶性肿瘤中除了子宫颈癌和非何杰金氏淋巴瘤的住院费用逐年下降以外,其余七种均有不同程度的增加,其中鼻咽癌的费用增长速度最快。结论作者认为规范化综合化治疗、各种新技术新设备的引入、以及患者自主选择最优治疗方法是恶性肿瘤费用增加的主要因素。单病种费用管理、临床路径的应用以及肿瘤早诊早治的广泛开展是控制恶性肿瘤治疗费用的有效手段。

Objective To analyze the inpatient cost in nine types of malignancies in a provincial cancer hospital from 2004 to 2010, to find the causes of cost increase and forecast the inpatient cost of the malignancies so as to provide a decision- making basis for health administration authorities. Methods Gray forecast model was used to predict the hospitalization expenses of the malignancies from 2011 to 2015. All computation was completed by Matlad 7.0 software. Results The hospitalization ex- penses of all malignancies were increased year by year except the decreased costs of cervical carcinoma and non- Hodgkin＇s lym- phoma. The growth rate of the costs of nasopharyngeal carcinoma was the fastest. Conclusions We thought that the main reasons for the cost increases of malignancies were standardized and comprehensive therapy, application of various new techniques and medical facilities, and the best therapeutic schedule chosen by patients themselves. Management of single- disease expendi- ture, application of clinical pathway and extensive implementation of tumor early detection and treatment are effective methods to control the cost increases of malignancies.