我国的财政赤字与李嘉图等价:1981-2010

China's Financial Deficits and Ricardo Equivalence: 1981-2010

李嘉图等价定理认为,在一定的条件下政府财政赤字通过债务发行还是增加税收来融资是无关紧要的,政府支出与总需求无关。这是因为理性的经济主体会意识到当前的赤字就是将来的税收负担。文章根据我国1981-2010年的时间序列数据,利用协整分析方法和向量误差修正模型,对李嘉图等价的有效性进行了检验。实证结果表明:无论长期还是短期李嘉图等价定理在我国并不成立,财政支出对居民消费具有促进作用,逆周期的积极的财政政策是有效的。这很可能是由于李嘉图等价定理的前提条件在我国尚不存在。但实证结果也显示,居民可支配收入对居民消费的影响远远大于财政赤字和国债发行。因此通过减税等政策措施增加居民可支配收入应当成为财政政策的重点。

The Ricardo equivalence theorem states that it is inconsequential whether a government deficit is financed by debt issue or by tax increases under certain conditions. The effect of government expenditure on total demand is orthogonal because rational economic agents consider today＇ s deficit financing as tomorrow＇ s tax liabilities. This article tests the validity of Ricardo equivalence in China during the period from 1981 to 2010 through co-integration analysis and vector error correction model. The empirical results show that, whether in the long-term or shortterm Ricardo equivalence theorem is not practical in China. Fiscal expenditure can increase household consumption, and positive fiscal policy for inverse cycle is effective. It is most likely that the premise condition of Ricardo equivalence theorem does not exist in China. But the empirical results also show that the impact of disposable income on household consumption is far greater than that of fiscal deficits and public debt. Therefore, the policies to increase the disposable income of residents by tax cuts and other measures should be the focus of fiscal policy.