人民币汇率变动对我国服务贸易竞争力影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on China's Service Trade Competitiveness

利用贸易竞争力指数模型测算了1982-2010年我国服务贸易竞争力水平;运用Granger因果关系检验、协整检验与脉冲响应函数,实证分析人民币汇率变动对我国服务贸易竞争力影响。得到的结论是:人民币汇率变化是引起我国服务贸易竞争力变化的原因;无论是长期,还是短期,人民币汇率升值对我国服务贸易竞争力均有不利影响。

Firstly, the competitiveness of China＇ s foreign trade service from 1982 to 2010 is calculated by using the index model of trade competitiveness in this paper. Secondly, the effect of RMB Exchange Rate movement on China＇s service trade Response Functions. competitiveness is empirically analyzed by using Granger Test, The research results are as follows： on the one hand, changes Cointegration Test and Impulse of RMB Exchange Rate lead to the change of China＇ s service trade competitiveness; on the other hand, the appreciatio effect on China＇s foreign trade service competitiveness in both the long term and the short n of RMB has a negative term.