摘要
应用安达市56 a的实测降水数据,采用一阶马尔科夫链和伽玛分布函数相结合的随机模型模拟了10 000 a的逐日降水数据。依据模拟的降水数据计算有效降雨量,利用兼顾作物需水量和有效降水量的缺水率指标,分析安达市玉米和大豆遭受不同程度农业旱情的概率,为旱作区的作物受旱分析提供了一种新方法。
Using 56 years rainfall data of Anda, daily rainfall process of 10000 years was simulated by combination of Markov Chain and Gamma Distribution Function. Effective rainfall was calculated based on the precipitation data simulated. Using both index of crop water requirement and effective precipitation water rate, probability of corn and soybean in Anda suffering from different degrees of agricultural drought was analyzed, providing a new method for crop suffering from drought in dry farming region.
出处
《水利科技与经济》
2012年第11期75-77,共3页
Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy
关键词
旱作区
降水模拟
农业旱情
概率分析
dry farming region
precipitation simulation
agricultural drought
probability analysis
